US Election Watch: Georgia’s Governor Race Is a Dead Heat on the Eve of the Midterms

November 2, 2026

By Michael Elijah Muhammad Clare

Today is the last day of campaigning before the US midterm elections. On Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, Americans will choose governors in 36 states, fill 35 US Senate seats and elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives. Our race of the day is Georgia’s open governor contest between Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson, and on the numbers it is a dead heat: the Decision Desk HQ / The Hill polling average has the two exactly tied.

The scoreboard

National mood: Two independent averages put Democrats about 9 points ahead on the generic ballot (Silver Bulletin, D +8.9, updated Nov 2; CNN Poll of Polls, D 52, R 43, Oct 27), and more than 53 million early ballots had been cast by Nov 1, compared with about 46 million in 2022 (UF Election Lab, via Al Jazeera).

In its final governor ratings, Cook moved Wisconsin from Toss Up to Lean D and Arizona from Lean D to Likely D. For the seven Senate toss-ups, see our Senate rundown four days out.

Battleground map

Race of the day: Georgia governor

Georgia’s governor’s seat is open because Gov. Brian Kemp is term-limited. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the race a toss-up.

The numbers

The Decision Desk HQ / The Hill average (Nov 2) has Bottoms at 47.8 and Jackson at 47.8, an exact tie. The three Georgia polls in our table below run from Bottoms +3 (State Navigate) to Jackson +1 (UGA SPIA for the AJC), and every recent poll is within the margin of error.

Could there be a runoff?

Georgia requires a majority: 50% plus one vote. If no candidate gets there, the top two meet again in a runoff on December 1. The Libertarian Party failed to qualify statewide candidates this year (AJC), so a runoff is considered unlikely, but write-in votes mean it is still possible.

The other governor toss-ups

Kansas (open seat): Cindy Holscher (D) vs Ty Masterson (R). Cook rates it a Toss Up; Sabato has it Leans R. NYT/Siena (Oct 28–Nov 2) has Holscher 48, Masterson 47. YouGov (Oct 27–30) has Holscher 49, Masterson 50. CNN/SSRS (Oct 20–26) has Holscher 45, Masterson 50.

Nevada: Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) vs Gov. Joe Lombardo (R). Cook and Sabato both rate it a toss-up. Noble Predictive Insights (Oct 27–29) has them tied 47–47, a result also reported by the Reno Gazette-Journal. Hart Research (D), a Democratic firm, has Ford 49, Lombardo 45 (Oct 21–26).

Also close: Cook rates New Hampshire Likely R, but the final UNH Survey Center poll (Oct 28–Nov 1) had Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) and Cinde Warmington (D) tied 47–47.

The polls

Candidates appear in alphabetical order in each row.

LV = likely voters; RV = registered voters.

(D) after a pollster’s name marks a Democratic firm. The RedBox Research poll was sponsored by a super PAC. The Stetson poll uses an online panel.

Florida corner

Florida’s governor’s seat is open because Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited. Rep. Byron Donalds (R), with running mate Bryan Avila, faces former Rep. David Jolly (D), with running mate Gwen Graham. Also on the ballot, according to the Florida Division of Elections, are Dean Abrams, Charles Burkett, Jeffrey Datto, Moliere Dimanche and Frank Russo (no party affiliation) and Scott Jewett (Libertarian Party of Florida).

Ratings and polls

The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the race Lean R, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Leans R. The Decision Desk HQ / The Hill average (Nov 2, 44 polls) has Donalds at 48.0 and Jolly at 44.2. Florida’s early voting ended on Sunday, Nov 1.

• Stetson University CPOR (Oct 26–30): Donalds 51, Jolly 45. Stetson found the gap had narrowed by about 6 points since mid-October, and 55% of likely voters said they had already voted. The poll uses an online, non-probability (Qualtrics) panel.
• NYT/Siena (Oct 19–25, 813 LV): Donalds 48, Jolly 44.
• Mason-Dixon for NBC 6/Telemundo (Sept 28–Oct 1, 625 RV, ±4): Donalds 48, Jolly 41. Independents favoured Jolly 47–28, and about one in four independents was still undecided.

US Senate special election

Sen. Ashley Moody (R), appointed to the seat formerly held by Marco Rubio, faces state Rep. Angie Nixon (D). Cook rates the race Likely R. Recent polls: NYT/Siena, Moody 50, Nixon 44; Stetson, Moody 49, Nixon 45; St. Pete Polls, Moody 49, Nixon 45; InsiderAdvantage (R-leaning, Oct 28–29), Moody 49, Nixon 43.

Amendments 1 to 3

Each statewide amendment needs 60% yes to pass. The latest Stetson figures:

• Amendment 1 would raise the cap on the state’s Budget Stabilization Fund, the “rainy-day fund”, from 10% to 25% of general revenue. Stetson: 46 yes, 35 no, 19 undecided.
• Amendment 2 would exempt agricultural and agritourism tangible personal property from property tax starting in 2027. Stetson: 57 yes, 25 no, 19 undecided.
• Amendment 3 would raise the homestead exemption on non-school taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, and cut the annual cap on assessment increases for non-homestead property from 10% to 5%. Stetson: 53 yes, 28 no, 20 undecided.

Polls suggest none of the three statewide amendments has clearly reached the 60% needed, though many voters are undecided. In Miami, city voters also decide Referendum 3, on a Virginia Key marina lease (WSVN).

House seats to watch

• FL-14 (Tampa): Mike Beltran (R) vs Rep. Kathy Castor (D). Toss Up.
• FL-22 (Palm Beach area): an open seat. Toss Up.
• FL-25 (Broward): Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D) vs Scott Singer (R). Lean D.
• FL-27 (Miami): Eliott Rodriguez (D) vs Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R). Lean R.

Cook also rates FL-07 (open), FL-09 (held by Democratic Rep. Darren Soto) and FL-13 (Rep. Anna Paulina Luna) as Lean R, and FL-16 (open) as Likely R. FL-20 is vacant and rated Solid D. All House ratings here are Cook’s, from Oct 30.

The new map: A congressional map signed on May 4, 2026, shifted districts 9, 14, 22 and 25 toward Republicans (Ballotpedia; USA Today).

On the trail (Oct 31 – Nov 2)

• Trump: President Trump held his final campaign rally in Salina, Kansas, for Sen. Roger Marshall on Nov 1, after a stop in Dubuque, Iowa, and repeated a pledge of $5,000 for every adult citizen (USA Today). He also voted early in person in West Palm Beach (PBS). House Speaker Mike Johnson said the polls are wrong (USA Today).
• Obama: Former President Barack Obama campaigned in Georgia (Oct 28), Detroit and Cleveland in the campaign’s final week (The Guardian; PBS).
• Michigan: Rep. Haley Stevens (D), who lost the Democratic Senate primary, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers on Nov 1. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer called it a “despicable betrayal”; Trump called her “brave”. Her chief of staff resigned (USA Today).
• Alaska: A judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit over two candidates who are both named Dan Sullivan appearing on the ballot. The department is appealing, and Sen. Dan Sullivan says he will accept the results.
• Election monitors: The Justice Department plans to deploy about 1,000 election monitors, according to PBS.
• Health: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), who is not on the ballot, was hospitalized after a stroke and is responding well, USA Today reports.
• New faces: At least 16 new senators are guaranteed because of retirements and open seats (USA Today).

Sources

Ratings and forecasts

• Cook Political Report, final governor ratings (Oct 29)
• Cook Political Report, governor race ratings
• Cook Political Report, Senate race ratings
• Cook Political Report, House race ratings
• Cook Political Report, “Two Governors’ Race Ratings Move In Democrats’ Direction”
• Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 2026 governor ratings
• Inside Elections, ratings

Polls and averages

• Decision Desk HQ / The Hill, Georgia governor polling average
• Decision Desk HQ / The Hill, Florida governor polling average
• Decision Desk HQ / The Hill, Nevada governor polling average
• Decision Desk HQ / The Hill, 2026 results and poll listings
• Silver Bulletin, generic ballot average
• CNN Poll of Polls, generic ballot
• CNN, polls in Michigan, Maine, Texas and Kansas (Oct 29)
• Siena Research Institute, NYT/Siena poll of Florida, Minnesota and South Carolina (Oct 28)
• The New York Times, “Byron Donalds Holds Slim Lead in Florida’s Race for Governor”
• NBC 6 South Florida, Mason-Dixon poll
• Florida Politics, Mason-Dixon poll
• Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research, Florida poll (Oct 26–30)

Georgia

• FOX 5 Atlanta, Georgia governor race final weekend (Oct 31)
• Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Georgia governor race goes down to the wire (Nov 2)
• Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Libertarians won’t be on the ballot in Georgia (July 11)
• Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Rick Jackson campaign spending
• The Guardian, Obama rally in Georgia (Oct 28)
• PBS News, Obama campaigns for Ossoff and Bottoms

Florida

• Florida Division of Elections, candidate list
• FOX 13 Tampa Bay
• WSVN 7News Miami
• Ballotpedia, redistricting in Florida

Following Election Day

• The Associated Press, why and how AP calls elections
• The Associated Press, 2026 results hub
• Decision Desk HQ, live results
• Decision Desk HQ, FAQ
• Reuters, how US news organizations will make midterm race calls (via Investing.com)
• Reuters, how US news organizations will make midterm race calls (via CP24)
• Deadline, the Associated Press and midterm results data
• Deadline, what to watch as networks cover the midterms
• Axios, AP election data deal with the networks
• Mediaite, guide to the networks’ 2026 coverage plans
• Adweek TVNewser, how news networks are covering the 2026 midterms
• CNN Press Room, 2026 midterm coverage
• PBS News, 2026 special coverage
• PBS News, how the AP calls midterm winners
• CBS News

National and on the trail

• Al Jazeera, more than 50 million votes cast in US midterm elections (Nov 1)
• University of Florida Election Lab, 2026 early vote
• USA Today, early voting compared with 2022
• USA Today, election live updates (Nov 1)

The Bahamas

• The Tribune, “US Deports 140 Bahamians so far in 2026” (Aug 27)
• The Tribune, Bahamian green card holder accused of illegal vote in US (Sept 14)
• The Nassau Guardian, ICE arrests Bahamian who reportedly voted in 2020 US election
• US Department of Homeland Security, release (Sept 11)
• Bahamas Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• lol242, US Election Watch: four days out

Polls cited: State Navigate; Echelon Insights; UGA SPIA for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution; Stetson University CPOR; NYT/Siena; RedBox Research (sponsored by the super PAC “A Fight Worth Having”); Noble Predictive Insights (also reported by the Reno Gazette-Journal); Hart Research (D); UNH Survey Center; Research Co.; YouGov; CNN/SSRS; Mason-Dixon for NBC 6/Telemundo; St. Pete Polls; InsiderAdvantage (R-leaning).